The recent developments in the South Caucasus round the number of key issues sidelined not less important problems of the region, among which the developments around the Nakhijevan Autonomous Republic (NA) and the involvement of the external powers, and firstly Turkey, can be mentioned.
The facts evidence that especially during the last decade Turkey managed to ensure the considerable political and economic presence in the NA and this should really worry Baku. The low profile of the central Azerbaijani authorities in the issue of the activation of the Turkish factor in the region is, perhaps, determined by the logic of non-infringement of the brotherhood relations with Turkey and to exclude the speculations on the Turkish-Azerbaijani discrepancies. The fraction between Azerbaijan and Turkey on Nakhijevan, which, in its essence, is of fundamental importance, can be classified according to several main directions.
Demographic problems
Nakhijevan, which have no land frontier with the Republic of Azerbaijan, has appeared in a deplorable social and economic state, due to which a vast stratum of the local population prefers to emigrate. In accordance with the unofficial figures, the population of the autonomy sank considerably because of the poor economic conditions, endemic unemployment. According to the population census in 1999, there were about 370 thousand people living in the autonomy and at present, that number does not exceed 150 thousand.
That problem becomes even more disturbing for the central authorities of Azerbaijan when another topical problem comes forward – the tendency of the transformation of the demographic setting of Nakhijevan. At the recent period, the inflow of the population, most of which are Kurds, of the eastern regions of Turkey to the Nakhijevan Autonomy can be observed. The new settlers from the eastern parts of Turkey integrate to the social conditions and life of the autonomy with comparative ease. Even more, most of them managed to buy real estate there in a rather short period (and this has become a rather natural thing). This problem bothers Azerbaijani experts, who connect the tendency of the gradual transformation of the NA with the special policy of Turkey, in the consequence of which in the near future Nakhijevan will face the threat of Kurdishizing.
Focusing their attention mainly on the process of the Kurdishizing of the autonomy, there are no words in the press about people of Nakhijevan who has immigrated to Turkey and settled as a rule in Igdir and Istanbul. The point is that Turkish party carries out serious work with the immigrated Azerbaijanis, trying to use their presence in the line of the activation of the Turkish factor in the autonomy. The official Ankara, on the one hand, promotes to the comparatively easy integration of the Azerbaijani settlers to the local social and community life and on the other hand, it promotes in any way to the communication with their relatives who stayed in the autonomy.
Clannish struggle
The absence of the land frontier with the NA has considerably weakened, especially for the recent decade, the control of the central authorities of Azerbaijan over the internal and external processes in the autonomy. But not only: today it is not spoken about the discrepancies between the authorities of the NA and the central authorities. In the autonomy, which appeared in the enclave, all the conditions are created for the establishment of the authoritative and despotic order, which can be seen there today. As the people of the autonomy mention at every turn basic human rights and freedoms are violated but due to the pressure of the local authorities they have no opportunity to speak about it. It is not infrequent that the opponents of the local authorities, who openly expressed their indignation over the established despotic order, the atmosphere of the unfairness and the impunity, were arrested on the charges of the espionage for Armenia.
Due to the ebbing of the influence of the central authorities on the elite of the NA the clannish discrepancies between the centre and the region were aggravated. It is known that the central authorities of Azerbaijan represented by the Alievs family origin from Nakhijevan and they have rather serious contradictions with the ruling clan of the autonomy. To preserve the control and the influence over the NA Azerbaijani authorities tried to activate oppositional wing of the local authorities, but they failed to achieve serious success. The “enclave” psychology or the so-called complex of the isolated co-existence also put obstacles in the way of the rectification of the relations with the centre.
The discrepancies between the local authorities of Nakhijevan and the central authorities of Azerbaijan are a good reason for the Turkish party to expand its involvement in the internal issues of the autonomy. In recent years the official Ankara has considerably activated the collaboration with the authorities of the autonomy and in this connection, the central authorities of Azerbaijan have expressed their indignation repeatedly. But on the other hand the official Ankara accepts warmly the representatives of the opposition and average citizens. One should forget that the opponents of the ruling elite in Nakhijevan very often are obliged to express their concern about the desolated condition in the autonomy through the interference and the support of the Turkish party.
Economic factor
The unfavourable social and economic situation provides to the collaboration between the Nakhijevan Autonomy and Turkey. The absence of the land frontier considerably complicates the communication and the turnover of the commodities between the centre and the region. They are mainly carried out through the territory of Iran. The economic partnership with the neighbouring Turkey is more profitable from technical and financial points of view. That partnership brought to the economic dependence of Nakhijevan’s economy on that country. The most part of the electric energy is supplied to Nakhijevan from Turkey and the small quantity from Iran.
The factor of the neighbouring Iran is one of the important preconditions for the deepening of the economic, as well as political relations between the autonomy and Turkey. The problem is that Iranian party, taking into consideration the factor of the Azerbaijanis in Iran is wary of any activation of the Azerbaijanis in Nakhijevan and the gaining of the political and economic weight of the Nakhijevan Autonomy in the region. Thus, it is logical that the Iranian party is not interested at all in the economic development of the autonomy. Thus, the absence of the land frontier with Azerbaijan, not very friendly relations with Iran and the absence of any relations with another adjacent country – Armenia, have turned the collaboration with Turkey into a profitable alternative. Turkey continues to play a key role in the economic development of the Nakhijevan Autonomy. The Turkish capital holds a firm place in such spheres of the autonomy’s economy as transport, services, building, and tourism.
Conclusion
The problem of Nakhijevan is the most contradictory part in the brotherhood relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. The Nakhijevan Autonomy is still in the “information vacuum” and this allows Turkish party acting freely in this direction.
In the recent period, the rumours about the further fate of the Nakhijevan Autonomy were activated owing to the rectification of the relations between Armenia and Turkey. The authorities of Azerbaijan clearly realize that the opening of the border between Armenia and Turkey would strengthen the barrier between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhijevan Autonomy and would provide to even more weakening of the control and involvement of the central authorities in the internal development of the autonomy and this would bring to the extension of the influence of Turkey in the internal and external problems.
Karen Veranyan
Noravank.am